The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its December employment report on Friday morning, with Wall Street consensus forecasting 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. The previous month saw 64,000 positions added, while the jobless rate stood at 4.6% in November, suggesting a modest slowdown in hiring momentum heading into the new year.
According to Goldman Sachs, the investment bank projects stronger payroll growth of 70,000 for December alongside the expected 4.5% unemployment rate. Goldman's analysts attribute the anticipated decline in unemployment to a normalization of federal workforce levels, noting that November's uptick to 4.6% was largely driven by temporary furloughs during the government shutdown. Bank of America similarly expects December nonfarm payrolls to stabilize around 70,000, a slight improvement from consensus.
The competing forecasts underscore ongoing uncertainty about labor market trajectory. While some analysts point to underlying economic resilience, the gap between consensus expectations and higher bank projections highlights questions about sustained hiring strength as the economy navigates persistent headwinds.