OPEC+ is preparing to halt its series of monthly production increases after September, according to Reuters sources familiar with the group's plans. The organization's key members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—are expected to raise their combined September output target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day at their August 2 meeting. This move would represent the fourth consecutive month of similar increases and mark the completion of a broader strategy to restore production levels following voluntary cuts implemented in 2023.
The anticipated pause in quota increases underscores OPEC+'s cautious approach to market conditions as it approaches the final quarter of the year. The incremental monthly raises have been designed to gradually reverse the 1.65-million-barrel-per-day production cut that was agreed upon in 2023, adjusted to account for the United Arab Emirates' departure from the organization in May. By extending the freezing of monthly adjustments through December, OPEC+ appears to be recalibrating its production strategy while monitoring global demand and geopolitical factors affecting energy markets.
The decision reflects broader uncertainty within OPEC+ regarding the sustainability of current crude oil prices and global economic growth. Market observers suggest the group is balancing its desire to stabilize markets against pressures to maintain production discipline, with the halt signaling a transition toward a more measured approach to supply management in the coming months.